Research shows who dies when and where

This study reminded me of how statistics and odds are sometimes (always?) almost meaningless.

Usually you hear what the average lifespan for an American man or woman is. Gender and nationality are factored in, but not race or location within the country. But, this study shows that those factors make a huge difference in your expected life expectancy.

"Asians can expect to live more than 15 years longer than high-risk urban blacks."

Now, I'm making an assumption here -- I want to admit that I haven't looked to see if this is accurate -- I'm assuming that urban black males have a high risk of dying young. And by young, I mean in their 20s or earlier, not young as in just younger than when most people die. So, what if you have an urban black male who is already 50 years old? Is his life expectancy still the same as an urban black male who is 5?

I know this has been pointed out to me before; odds don't really apply to a single individual person. I'm a white middle-class female living in a suburban area. This study predicts my life expectancy. But it doesn't take into account a LOT of other factors that are specific to just me. My family's health history, my personal habits, etc.

I've really liked stats classes I've taken. But, I think I fundametally don't *get* stats. I wish I did.

And that reminds me of another thing I don't get regarding stats... why is it that when there's a 40% chance of rain everyone acts as though it's *going* to rain??? It's more likely that it's NOT going to rain, right? But, hearing there's a 40% chance, people say "Oh, it's going to rain today."

I do not get it.